The Upcoming Federal Election - What is happening?
Tanck Associate Katerine Theodosis talks what to expect when elections are truly too close to call.
By Katerine Theodosis
Will there or won’t there be a budget? Who’s going to win the election? Confused about all the different polling? Let’s unpack it all.
I’m not a betting woman, but even if I were, I certainly wouldn’t be making any wagers on the forthcoming Federal Election. If you take away one thing from my blog today it’s this: engage your hearts out and engage across all aisles. You don’t want to be caught out after the election having only backed a loser. We all remember the 2019 election...
So, what do we know? Since the start of 2025 we’ve seen by-elections, cyclones, state elections and an on and off and on-again Federal Budget.
The Victorian By-elections
Labor experienced a substantial swing against it in Werribee, indicating growing voter dissatisfaction, particularly in areas traditionally considered Labor strongholds. This will be something to look out for in the upcoming Federal election, as the significant swing against Labor in Werribee signifies potential swings in other federal seats such as McEwen and Hawke.
The Liberal Party secured Prahran from the Greens. This victory shows the Liberals' potential to appeal again to the inner-city seats it lost to the Teals and Labor at the previous Federal election.
Cyclone Alfred and Queensland
Before Cyclone Alfred, the Liberals were gaining traction in the polls and had a very narrow lead over the Prime Minister. Natural disasters already tend to advantage the incumbent government (unless you’re in Hawaii, of course) and Dutton has faced intense criticism for leaving his electorate and attending a fundraiser in Sydney in contrast to Albo actively engaging with on-ground relief efforts. Recent polls show Albo making slight gains in approval ratings.
Labor has already lost a seat in Victoria to the redistribution, so they will be looking to make gains wherever possible. With Dutton’s seat in Dickson is the most marginal seat in Queensland, the Greens losing a seat in the Queensland State Election - Queensland will be an important state for either party having a pathway to a majority government.
The timing of Alfred has also meant that Albo won’t be calling an election in March for an April election as highly anticipated, and he has confirmed that the election will be in May – meaning there will definitely be a budget delivered on the 25th of March.
Western Australia State Election
The recent Western Australia state election resulted in a decisive victory for the Labor Party, marking their third consecutive term in office. Labor secured approximately 40 out of 59 seats, while the Liberal Party managed only about five seats.
Labor did have an 11% swing against them however that wasn’t necessarily picked up by the Liberals and mostly went to independence and the Greens. What this means is Labor will be hopeful that this signifies their branding is strong in WA and they can hold onto the WA seats they gained in the last election which got them to a majority government.
What does this all mean?
Plan strategically and be prepared for different eventualities - a Hung Parliament, minority government or otherwise. An election this close to call could very well mean a hung Parliament. Engaging with both sides will be important for getting good outcomes for you organisation but so is engaging with Independents like the Teals.
With a Federal budget now confirmed and the election pushed out to May, this could be an opportunity to secure times in MPs diaries in April that may have otherwise been marked out for a potential election.
Make sure to align your goals and objections with the issues that each party will be focusing on, such as cost-of-living pressures, healthcare, national security and energy. With a Federal Budget now confirmed before the election, if you had a budget submission be sure to be engaging with friendly MPs and relevant Ministers and Shadow Ministers to have the best chance of success.
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